Insane tiebreak scenarios, part two.

This is something I dreamed up while attending class today. If you must know, the class was "Basic Zone Read Defense." USC doesn't offer more advanced classes discussing the defense of the zone read, for obvious reasons.

There is a rather real possibility that six teams tie for first. Impossible, you say? Hah, you doubting Thomas. But be warned, this is best suited for a graduate Tiebreak Analysis course.

Oregon (5-1) - Loses to Arizona, Loses to Oregon State, Beats Arizona State

Arizona (4-1) - loses to Cal, loses to USC, beats Arizona State, beats Oregon

Stanford (5-2) - loses to Cal, beats USC

USC (4-2) - Loses to Stanford, beats Arizona, beats UCLA

Oregon State (4-2) - Beats Oregon, Beats Washington State, loses to Washington

Cal (3-3) - beats Arizona, beats Stanford, beats Washington

Here we have accounted for the current top six teams and each of their conference games throughout the rest of the year. If all these games go as predicted, each team with have a conference record of 6-3, causing an unprecedented 6-way logjam in first place. And this in a year in which the SEC had the contestants in its Championship Game decided before people had thrown out their Halloween decorations.

Now, how do we break this tie? Well, we know that record against all other first-place teams is the first tiebreak. And in that case, three teams will be 3-2 and three teams will be 2-3 against the other five teams in the first place tie.

3-2: Arizona, USC, Oregon State.

2-3: Oregon, Stanford, Cal

Thus, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal are eliminated. And since USC has beaten both Oregon State and Arizona, the Trojans head to the Rose Bowl.

For laughs, we can create the entire top 6 in this situation:

1. USC

2. Arizona (holds head-to-head tiebreak against Oregon State)

3. Oregon State

4. Stanford (Oregon and Stanford both beat top-ranked USC, eliminating Cal; Stanford holds head-to-head tiebreak against Oregon)

5. Oregon

6. Cal

Note that all of these teams would be bowl eligible and would likely be favored to win each of their games. Congrats - if you understood this post, you've completed the requisite coursework to receive your M.S. in Tiebreak Analysis. Contact the USC Registrar and say that O.J. sent you.

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