Today starts our first of five straight days of wall-to-wall coverage of the run-up to the GAME OF THE CENTURY!!!!!
The contest will be presented by the Worldwide Leader in THREE DIMENSIONS! That’s fifty percent more dimensions than usual!
Anyways, on to the schedule:
Tuesday: Key Matchups
Wednesday: Special Teams
Thursday: When Ohio State has the ball
Friday: When USC has the ball
Saturday: Last-minute game notes and snarky predictions
Islamabad sees five matchups that are key to the outcome:
USC Linebackers and Defensive Ends vs. Terrelle Pryor
Terrelle Prior is, to use Pete Carroll’s word that was stolen from Malcolm Gladwell which is really just a simple statistics term, an outlier. He’s special. He’s 6 foot 5, stronger than Samson, supposedly can leap up to ten yards, has Michael Vick’s speed and elusiveness, and has zero felony convictions.
The problem is that he hasn’t really shown a Vick/Young/Dixon ability yet, only a Vick/Young/Dixon potential. So we are always waiting on tenterhooks for that “breakout” game.
In short, no one defender can stop Terrelle Pryor - it takes a team. The Trojans charged with keeping track of Pyror are the defensive ends (Everson Griffen and Wes Horton) and the linebackers (Mike Morgan, Chris Galippo, and Malcolm Smith). The particular schemes that the Trojans and Buckeyes will employ will be further examined on Thursday.
Though running quarterbacks like Vince Young and Dennis Dixon have cause the Trojans some problems in the past, there is hope that USC can progress. The current crop of linebackers is the fastest group that Pete Carroll has had in his tenure at SC, so they can be expected to close gaps more quickly than previous incarnations of the Trojan backers. In addition, Pete Carroll claims to have updated his schemes so that his defense can stop running quarterbacks.
On the downside, the Trojans’ front seven appears to be less than sure tacklers, missing several easy wrap-ups against lowly San Jose State, especially up the middle. And that lack of size at the linebacker position might show up when trying to tackle the 6 foot 5 Pryor.
Bottom line: If USC can bottle up Terrelle Pryor’s running game, then the Buckeyes will have to pass. And that means that USC will almost certainly win.
Ohio State’s Secondary vs. Matt Barkley
If the Buckeyes can stack eight men in the box, then there’s simply no way that USC can run the ball effectively. It’s up to The Chosen One to force Ohio State to drop more men into coverage and open up the running lanes for CJ McJohnson.
Matt Barkley’s situation has been hashed, rehashed, and overhashed. Here’s a brief overview, in haiku form:
Barkley is quite skilled
But he is young and naive
Can he take pressure?
Fewer people, however, have analyzed the Ohio State secondary. The first thing that pops out is the enormous experience level in the secondary - it has three seniors and one junior starting. While the unit might lack top-flight talent, they’re unlikely to give up any big plays. Expect the secondary to play solidly, but not spectacularly.
Another item of note in Ohio State’s secondary is the lack of a shutdown corner. Ohio State usually has one, but currently is lacking a marquee DB after Malcolm Jenkins left to play on Sunday. Chimdi Chekwa, a junior, will draw the responsibility of covering Damien Williams. After that, the CB position is rather muddled. Andre Amos, Devon Torrence, and Travis Howard will split time covering the remainder of the USC receiving fleet. None of them is particularly distinguished.
The secondary has some quality safeties, but none are particularly special. Remember, this is a unit that conceded 12.0 yards per pass attempt to NAVY. Yeah, the team that only runs a triple option.
The Trojans receivers, even without Ronald Johnson, are surely a more talented bunch than the Buckeyes they’ll be lining up against. In the end, though, the Ohio State secondary will likely focus more on confusing Matt Barkley with funky packages than actually trying to shut down USC’s receiving threats.
Bottom line: If Barkley can stretch out the Ohio State defense and force the safeties to play 15 yards from the line of scrimmage or further, then the USC rushing attack should be effective, and the offense will roll. If not, then the battle will focus on USC’s offensive line.
USC Offensive Line vs. Ohio State Defensive Line
The USC offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the nation. It dominated last week’s battle, and it’ll be even better against Ohio State due to the return of All-American Kris O’Dowd. The group should be absolutely fearsome in the trenches.
The Ohio State defensive line is a worthy opponent, though. The strength of the Ohio State defense, the line returns 8 players with a combined 43 starts. With that kind of depth, look for the D-Line to throw in a lot of different looks, utilizing their depth to keep the defensive line fresh and rested. As good as the unit looks on paper, it didn’t appear to be all that effective against Navy’s triple option, ceding a total of 186 rushing yards for a 4.2 yard per play average. That kind of production won’t get the job done against USC.
Bottom line: USC has a strong edge on the line. Expect USC to push Ohio State off the ball and protect Matt Barkley. Anything less would be a surprise. USC should be able to relatively consistently get offensive linemen to the second level to put a body on the Ohio State linebackers.
Ohio State Offensive Line vs. USC Defensive Line
As my esteemed colleage, Ronald Johnson, M.D., noted previously, we perhaps should start calling the Ohio State O-Line the “blow-line.” It was absolutely shredded against Navy. It was a leaky sieve. Jim Tressell considered using a Dutch boy to plug the leaky dyke with his finger, but that would mean there would be 12 men on the field. The point is that this unit is Ohio State’s biggest weakness. Not to take too much away from Thursday’s segment, but Ohio State wants to run the ball to set up the pass. This unit had a hard enough time eking out 4.0 yards per rush against an overmatched Navy defense that it’s doubtful that they can make USC respect a power rushing attack.
USC’s defensive line is good, not great. Injury-riddled at the top but still extremely deep, the Trojans should be able to get at Terrelle Pryor early and often. Look for Ohio State to try to negate the Trojan line’s aggressiveness with zone option read plays, fly sweeps, zone counters, screens, and speed option plays. Terrelle Pryor will likely have protection problems, but he is perfectly fine with scrambling.
Bottom line: Look for USC to eviscerate the Ohio State offensive line. The concern comes in the Ohio State playmakers being able to use deception to keep the defensive line on its heels. If that happens, then the Ohio State offensive line will look good, even thought they’re not doing much.
USC Secondary vs. Terrelle Pryor
This is really a lopsided matchup - USC’s secondary is one of the top five in the nation, anchored by headhunter and part-time grim reaper Taylor Mays, and rounded out by shutdown corners Kevin Thomas and Josh Pinkard and strong safety Will Harris.
On the other side of the line lurks Terrelle Pryor. Mr. Pryor, while a physical specimen and a pterodactyl look-alike, is not very good at throwing passes, especially deep passes. Look for Mays and Harris to be looking to stop the run and contain Pryor on the ground. Especially early, they’ll look to force Pryor to pass the ball.
Bottom Line: USC will look to put 7 or 8 men in the box on most plays to force Terrelle Pryor to try to beat them with his arm. As such, the matchup between Pryor and the USC secondary will be an important factor in shaping the game on Saturday.
That’s all the matchups we have time for today, folks. Come back tomorrow and we’ll discuss special teams.
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